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You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. Not anymore. When is Eurovision and how do you get tickets? Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). University of New Hampshire . A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. This Gulf Coast county is home to Tampa and has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960. Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. 2016 Election (1135) Republicans have paid some attention. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). Those places will get the bulk of the presidential candidates time and their surrounding media markets will get the bulk of the television ad spending. We tried to pick counties that had a large enough population to matter some or if they just had a knack for picking that statewide winner. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa Obama won them, Trump won them, Biden lost them. That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. President-elect Joe Biden officially secured the presidency after the Electoral College met to give him and Vice President-elect Harris 306 votes. He will need to cut into Clintons advantage here in North Carolinas second-most populous county since Clinton is likely to roll up the score in Democratic Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. Sumter County, . In the past, says Mrs Day-Baker, the presence of conservative Democrats and split-ticket voting - choosing a Republican nominee for president but Democratic Party candidates as local representatives, or vice versa - were both commonplace. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 57%-41% - 2008: McCain 55%-44%. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. Found an error on our site? Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Daniel Zimny-Schmitt1, Michael C. Harris2 1. Once-reliably Republican -- and essential to Republicans to help overcome the deficit they face in Las Vegas Clark County -- Washoe voted twice for Bush and then twice for Obama. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. Winnebago County: A large bellwether county in east-central Wisconsin, Mr. Trump won it in 2016, but in 2018 Democrats running for governor and the Senate performed much better. It came close to reflecting the statewide vote in 2012. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. It requires a lot more than pure luck.). Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. who in 2016 won Caswell and other rural counties in North Carolina by tapping those feelings of abandonment. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? Other counties to watch: Denver suburbs Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson. 2020 Election (1210) As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. The more people can work out and see for themselves that the data clearly indicates a different outcome, the better. Ventura County, California - two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016). Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. Learn about the anomalies, strange events, and eyewitness accounts surrounding the 2020 election. It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. Lets find a coin, and flip it. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 105,724Republicans: 70,060Unaffiliated: 15,141Other: 6,079. Voter Demographics (9). History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. used to vote more like the country as a whole, huge gains with white voters without a college degree, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? Republicans have a voter registration advantage here but in recent presidential elections, its had consistently tight margins: In 2012 Obama won it by less than 4,000 votes. Click here, for more. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-47% - 2008: Obama 55%-44%. Here's why. On a cold, wind-swept November afternoon two weeks after election day, the crowds that thronged the beaches of Ottawa County all summer long are but a distant memory. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. The divisions were everywhere. But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. Want to dive deeper? This was George W. Bush territory in 2000 and 2004, but Obama brought it back into the Democratic fold in his two elections. Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. (i.e. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. These are the bellwether counties. We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. Outstanding. These counties' national bellwether status might not ring true in 2016, though, because Illinois is one of Obama's home states. The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. The website FiveThirtyEight pointed out in 2021 that, in the 2016 election Trump won, opponent Hillary Clinton carried 16 of the 35 counties that had gone for the winner in every election from. Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. (Go to the bottom of the page. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. That report was issued on Nov. 12. Whether or not these less diverse, industry-dependent communities can regain their bellwether status in four years' time remains to be seen. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) Ryan Matsumoto is a contributing analyst for Inside Elections. Republicans also have to do drive up their own turnout in big population areas like Charlotte, but also have to drive up margins in lots of medium-size population counties like Union (Charlotte suburb).