There are 5 key steps to objectively forecast your chances of winning: Determine the right metrics Validate metrics Sell metrics to the organization Apply the metrics rigorously Test and update the metrics. Once you sign-up, you can add 4 additional team members within your EZGovOpps Portal. The scope of the opportunity aligns with your companys current service offerings. Do you have a unique socio economic status? Key #2 - Fully Assessing the PWin. Thats called a shot in the darkand that is exactly what you do when you respond to an RFP that you get out of the blue, where you didnt know about it or pursue it in the months and years prior to the RFP being released. Different Approaches to Calculating the Probability of Win (PWin) for Probability of win simply states the likelihood that we will receive an award for the opportunity we plan to capture. It has been sent. I applied multiple approaches to the same portfolio. Effectively, these variances tend to even out across the portfolio. In doing so, you now have two Pwin numbers that you can use to immediately see the deltas. Pwincan be expressed by relative probability (high,medium,low) or by a percent (e.g. You assess the SSEBs buying habits as highly favorable for competitors to win contracts and therefore rate your probability of loss at only 40%. Ill cover that afterwards. The problem with using the gross proposal win rate to gauge your performance is it doesnt provide insight into how well youre doing at each step within the process. It basically says if you respond to 10 RFPs and you win 5, your win rate is 50%. Financial projections are typically on a portfolio basis so for this purpose any of the above can be used. Influencing Probability of Winning Working - Shipley Associates EZGovOpps Ultimate Member Support can be reached by email at. Copyright 2009-2023 R3 Business Solutions LLC, to see which opportunities have variances, WinCenter Capture and Proposal Development, Resources: Integrated Capture & Proposal Management, Leveraging the CorasWorks Application Platform, Different approaches to calculating and using Pwin, click here to pop-up the Reporting & Analytics page of WinCenter. Depending on the industry youre in, the typical RFP process may involve one or more selection steps. As discussed earlier, pWin is a simplified mechanism of giving your management team a gauge of your companys ability to win that specific opportunity and validation for spending B&P dollars to perform capture and submit a proposal. For instance, if a new competitor jumps into the ring in the later phases of the process, your PWIN score should decrease. This is the most common approach, particularly in commercial business using CRMs. It is almost as likely that the Pwin of an opportunity will go down as you advance in phases. Support/ The key is to note that regarding Pwin there are two different topics to consider: 1) calculating Pwin and 2) using Pwin. However, you are also going to capture the manual approach where the BD reps wings it. I often work with managers who believe that every RFP represents an opportunity, and therefore, its their responsibility to respond to each and every one they receive. The accuracy of your internal capabilities and customer relations assessments may increase or decrease either factor independent of the other. Members can see their dashboard populate live by selecting their criteria in the Pre-forecast My Profile. The purpose of these ratios is to raise awareness among managers about how effectively managers are utilizing their resources, and in particular, if theyre being wasted pursuing opportunities they have no realistic chance at winning. : r/excel I've been trying to figure it out for awhile but haven't been able to. In this example we are only dealing with the SSEB buying habits because we have not covered competitive intelligence. The architecture, engineering, and construction industry (AEC) is uniquely shaped by early information about government budgets and capital plans. The one constant in Pwin: we consistently . However, it also enables you to do something about it. He also highlights key win factors that contribute to an accurate Pwin to help you go win the next one.. While its true that every RFP represents an opportunity, its also true that not every opportunity is a good opportunity. The customer seems amenable to a new service and/or product provider. To get the bestPwinon an effort, avoid the mystery and create the magic through objectivity, knowledge, and strategy. The mystery focuses on our inability to baseline an accurate picture of ourselves from the customers perspective. In many cases a BD representative just enters a % in a Pwin field in a spreadsheet or system. See the New Shipley Playbook For example, some clients have learned they are consistently losing projects with a PWIN of 16% - 30% and are using the GOVPROP.com PWIN Calculator to improve their win rates. Theoretically, this removes the individual's subjectivity and instead bases the calculation on the stage of the opportunity. Some firms utilize a stage or phased based approach to calculated PWin. It is used to drive a % weighting of an opportunity for financial projection purposes. Start today. For those opportunities that have a PWIN within your companys bid range, one of your next steps should be to complete a detailed competitive intelligence assessment going into the target internal gate. However, you will find a few opportunities that have wide variations. If our goal is to improve predictability, and ultimately I think that should be our goal, I think we need to put more effort into determining which performance measures more accurately predict future performance. A few simple thoughts can keep us out of trouble. In business development metrics, it is important to calculate an accurate Pwin so you can plan capture and proposal efforts accordingly. The result is -3.00%, which is the percentage of decrease in earnings. The interesting part is that by doing the comparison of Pwins you are able to see which opportunities have variances. Does your pwin estimation pass the "So what?" test? Pwin can be calculated in many different ways. []. Imagine you are standing in a field in the middle of the night. Capture2Proposal (C2P) provides a PWin calculator that is part of our business development software. If you have a team member that already has an EZGovOpps account, ask them to get add you. The #Plan A team tells me that the sweetest, (and most valuable) wins are those when our clients proposal attributes win, despite the price being higher than other bids. All rights reserved. if anyone can help me with how to correctly express the formula to extract the winning % of trades from a list of trade results. Great synopsis on BD/Capture pWin strategy approach. To calculate opportunity win rate, divide the number of closed won deals in a particular time period by the total number of opportunities you created in that period. Excel - win % calculation formula - Trade2Win Forums It allows the BD or Capture Manager to conduct a thorough opportunity assessment of each item in your company's BD Pipeline. As you move into the pursuit internal gate, you need to include two additional factors to make a PWIN determination that will influence the bid/no-bid decision for this opportunity. Despite these advantages, its shortcoming is it doesnt provide much detail or insight about where you are doing well and where you arent. It has already paid for itself in the first month. u{r9/yk|#e/fRoYN~j#JW y9Rge`9|1B2 c*KefFywC. Stage/Phase Based. This ensures that you are consistently aligning the decision-making process for a $1K and a $100B opportunity to the companys strategic goals. GovEvents/ You categorize the opportunity by quadrantcurrent or non-current customer and current or non-current offeringand set maximum pWin thresholds. This ensures that you are consistently aligning the decision-making process for a $1,000 and a $100 billion opportunity to your companys strategic goals. Formula for calculating win percentage? First, your companys win rate for the relevant quadrant. When sellers talk about proposal win rates, theyre usually referring to the gross proposal win rate. The scope of the opportunity aligns with your companys strategic goals. Lets explore. The problems come into play because we always want thePwinto be as high as possible for the internal sale of the effort and we rarely examine standings from the customer perspective. The overlooked reason why your probability of win (pwin) estimate is Calculate a percentage of decrease. Its value is the awareness it creates among managers about how internal resources are being used. Your idea of yield is more forward looking, trying to leverage this information to make reliable predictions. What were ultimately interested in is how much business is going to close per period and how much will turn to revenue. The one constant inPwin:we consistently overestimate our probability of success, usually significantly. All of our Federal Government Contractor customers use Pwin (Probability of Win)in their opportunity capture processes. User's Guide: How to identify, select & engage an expert or expert I wholeheartedly, passionately, and without reservation, completely disagree with this approach. In this model, the organization maintains a standard set of KPIs (Key Performance Indicators such as Blue, Green, Yellow, Red) for key elements of pursuit success that they use to evaluate all opportunities. DISCLOSURE: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. Your pWin calculation process starts with a determination of capabilities and customer experience. What we really need to know is whether the business is going to hit its numbers and what to do when forecast is below target. Different sellers require different kinds of information, and therefore, should calculate the win rates that are best for them. Adding PWin Calculations to your Pipeline. And note, that you are still relying on people to make correct answers to the questions. This article explains how to calculate a percentage in Excel using various methods, such as formulas and formatting. We recommended defining bid decision criteria for every bid, then assessing the state of capture and proposal efforts against these criteria at a set of gate reviews. [], [] Written by Jeff Leitner, senior consultant at Red Team Consulting. As youll see below, the quest for accuracy is not necessarily achievable and may not even be the most valuable use of Pwin. For financial reporting we are going to use an analytical approach the Phase/Stage-Based, the KPI-based, or the Question-based. } This is about getting to a number. The gross proposal win rate is the simplest and most straight forward of all the proposal win rates you may calculate. Calculating Pwin for A Government Contract - Sas Gps Rule # 1: dont guess. WinCenter will help you see the need and do something about it. Rather, PWin should be used to frame discussions about the actions being taken to improve our chances of winning. The advantage of the gross proposal win rate is it provides a single number that you can use to gauge your overall performance between reporting . When you see the opportunities with variances, you now know to ask Why?. With that as the ceiling, you run the opportunity through a strategic assessment in the prospecting internal gates and give the opportunity an initial pWin of 35% based on strategic fit and competitive landscape. In R3 WinCenter (our capture and proposal management software for GovCon) we use a standard set of 9 KPIs (what we call Pursuit Progress Assessment KPIs). It is a tool to help you assess where you on on your opportunities at a given point in time. But, most people use this approach or manual. We redesign and reposition. Without this level of interaction, we cant possibly construct a reasonably accurate picture ofPwinfrom the customers perspective. You categorize the opportunity by quadrant-current or non-current customer and current or non . PWin (Probability of Win) modelling provides a structured approach to identifying your probability of success on an opportunity. Copyright 2013 EZGovOpps.com. Pgo = Probability that the customer will fund the project. In a KPI driven model your Pwin is more grounded as it is driven based upon pre-set organizational standards. About/ The closer you get to these thresholds the higher your pWin: Current Customer, Current Offering 95%Current Customer, Non-Current Offering 75%Non-Current Customer, Current Offering 50%Non-Current Customer, Non-Current Offering 25%. . We have the latest insights and industry knowledge to help you win. Therefore, when calculating win rates, sellers should delineate between re-bids to existing clients and new bids to new clients. It basically says if you respond to 10 RFPs and you win 5, your win rate is 50%. For example if a team has a record of 32-7-1 the winning percentage should be .813 (32.5/40). How many will we down select? For managers who automatically respond to every RFP they receive, the RFP response ratio encourages them to invest time thinking about whether an individual RFP represents a legitimate opportunity that is winnable, or whether its a poor fit that will more than likely result in a failed bid. I will demonstrate PWIN calculation through an example. This final post in the Business Development Pipeline series builds on each of the previous posts on validating the pipeline, internal gates, and customer relations to calculate your opportunity pWin. Often, a Pwin at a point may point out the need to take action. Take A Tour/ The customer is familiar with your companys products and/or services specific to this opportunity.